The impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on the Thai economy is likely to become clearer in the third quarter, says Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat.
Thai exports accelerated in the second quarter to avoid the tariffs, as a 90-day pause on the measures means their impact is still unknown, he said.
"For Thailand, the situation should become clearer once the US starts trade negotiations with us. Discussions are expected soon, and if they proceed smoothly, the negative impact may be mitigated," said Mr Julapun.
He said one certainty is a 10% tariff on exports to the US, which the country has implemented for all nations sending goods to its shores.
However, Mr Julapun said Thailand can accept negotiations that ensure the tax rate the US imposes on Thailand is not higher than that of competitor countries.
Thailand was initially slapped with a 36% US tariff in April, and the 90-day moratorium expires in July.
He said the proposed US tax measures are tantamount to tearing up all multilateral agreements, including World Trade Organization pacts.
Regarding Thai efforts to cope with economic volatility, Mr Julapun said the government is considering a 157-billion-baht economic stimulus package aimed at generating domestic employment, increasing production that impacts the domestic supply chain, and promoting investment that could stimulate the domestic economy through multiple cycles.
This budget was originally intended for the digital wallet handout, but was reallocated for an investment-based stimulus scheme, he said.
While a cash giveaway injects money into the economy quickly, investment projects stimulate the economy and contribute to long-term economic restructuring, said Mr Julapun.
The investment stimulus projects are being screened, as government agencies have submitted proposals totalling up to 400 billion baht that need to be thoroughly vetted, he said.
The project screening committee will initially eliminate projects with an investment value of less than 500,000 baht per project because they are considered small-scale and may require special procurement methods that could lack transparency, said Mr Julapun.
Government spokesman Jirayu Houngsub said Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra addressed the cabinet regarding use of the central budget for fiscal 2025 to stimulate the economy via the allocated 157 billion baht.
Mr Jirayu said this budget is being reviewed by the subcommittee responsible for project screening, while various central budgets proposed by each ministry are being reviewed by the Budget Bureau.
Ms Paetongtarn emphasised that all ministries must carefully review their budget proposals and projects, ensuring they pass thorough scrutiny by the Budget Bureau and all relevant agencies in accordance with the law, particularly Section 144 of the constitution, which states: "Any act that causes a Member of Parliament, a Senator, or a committee member to be involved, either directly or indirectly, in the disbursement of the national budget shall not be permitted."
This rule is to ensure that all cabinet-approved projects proceed with due diligence, legal compliance, and in accordance with constitutional requirements, said Mr Jirayu.