A tough nut to crack
The People's Party's (PP) poor showing in the May 11 municipal elections may have confirmed a failure that's becoming more apparent -- to end the country's long-entrenched patronage system.
Thaksin: Feeling more confident
Winning only a fraction of the municipal polls was an embarrassing setback in the eyes of many observers. The municipalities are the lowest level of all local elections.
The PP has fared disappointingly in other local elections -- the tambon administrative organisations (TAO) and the provincial administrative organisations (PAO) -- in these past months, according to a political analyst.
It managed to garner only one PAO chairman victory in Lamphun while pulling in a small number of PAO and TAO councillor seats.
On May 11, polls were held across 2,463 municipalities nationwide: 33 Nakhon municipalities, 213 Muang municipalities, and 2,217 tambon municipalities.
There were 4,558 mayoral candidates and 60,515 candidates for municipal council seats. The polls elected 2,128 mayors and 33,346 municipal councillors to fill seats left vacant by those who completed their terms on March 27.
The PP fielded 15 mayoral candidates in Nakhon municipality elections nationwide, but they all suffered defeats.
Only five of its mayoral candidates won in Muang municipality elections, while nine of its mayoral candidates won in tambon municipalities -- results that fell far below the party's expectations.
According to noted political scientists, the outcome of the municipal polls was highly indicative of an unchanged status quo.
In fact, old-school, conventional politics still dominates in the provinces, which serve as strongholds for several political parties in general elections, said Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science expert at Rangsit University.
A political source said the PP must have been shocked to discover that none of its candidates secured seats in Nakhon municipalities covering downtown areas of provinces where the party is typically well-received.
The source believed the PP may have lost more than the local elections. The party is viewed to be fighting a lost cause in trying to dismantle the patronage system, which is responsible for carrying most politicians across the finishing line in polls at all levels.
Politicians and political scions, whose family members hold public office, with longstanding connections to the provinces, tend to divert development funds to build or improve basic infrastructures in their localities, leaving voters feeling impressed or even indebted to them. The gratitude is reciprocated in elections in the form of votes for the respective parties.
The PP has argued that such reciprocation runs counter to meritocracy as it feeds into the patronage system on which politicians rely in order to clinch victory. The source said the PP's anti-patronage approach was blamed for residents giving the party a wide berth.
"Many believe local politics does not lead to any significant change in national politics, so they think local elections are just a waste of time. The winners are still the same old faces," Mr Wanwichit said.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, warned the PP should not allow itself to be defeated in local polls too often.
"It would be a lie if we didn't say the party has failed. In the 2023 general election, the MFP, which is now reborn as the PP, came top, winning up to 14 million votes," he said.
"Now, the PP cannot make an excuse that local polls are different from national ones. The PP should accept that there is a problem with its popularity."
Mr Thanaporn said the PP cannot afford to be complacent; other parties are quietly recruiting younger people as part of their strategy to appeal to younger voters. The PP does not have a monopoly on new-generation politicians.
To stay relevant, the rule of thumb is that parties must be consistently popular across elections.
"They may not need to come top in every election, but they cannot afford to fail completely in polls. Consistency is the key to their success," Mr Thanaporn said.
PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said the party teams did their best in the municipalities where they had counted on winning in Chiang Mai and Nakhon Pathom.
The party planned to introduce the Lamphun model of PAO management in the tambon municipalities where the party won council seats, he said, noting in some municipal constituencies the party had lost narrowly to the winners.
He insisted it was hard to pinpoint what contributed to the party's success or failure in the municipal elections.
However, the polls were a reflection of the people's mandate and their expectations of policies at ground level, the candidates' appeal, competitiveness, as well as how convenient and accessible the polls had been made for voters to participate, he added.
Becoming even more bold
With just two years to go before the next general election, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is no longer shy about wanting to whisk the Interior Ministry away from the Bhumjaithai Party.
Natthaphong: Party did its best
According to media reports, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party was quoted as saying during an exclusive interview on May 30 that the Interior Ministry had not worked to its fullest and Pheu Thai, as the biggest party in government, must now take over the interior portfolio.
The Interior Ministry is no ordinary portfolio. Overseeing provincial administrations and controlling a vast bureaucratic network, the ministry is central to implementing policies and thus directly influences voter support.
That Thaksin is openly pushing to bring the ministry under Pheu Thai control signals his growing confidence that Bhumjaithai will not risk pulling out of the coalition, according to observers.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, said that after having had little leverage over Bhumjaithai for some time, Pheu Thai now has the opportunity to increase its bargaining power.
Public sentiment appears to favour the ongoing investigation into alleged vote rigging in last year's Senate election. Bhumjaithai, known for its close ties to a number of senators under scrutiny, has seen its popularity wane.
The government has just completed the first reading of the 2026 budget bill, giving the ruling party more confidence to act. Moreover, the Klatham Party, which is closely allied to Pheu Thai and is under the guidance of chief adviser Capt Thamanat Prompow, is gaining ground by luring MPs into its fold. Pheu Thai feels it has more breathing room and does not have to solely rely on Bhumjaithai.
So Thaksin is betting that Bhumjaithai will not withdraw from the coalition, according to the analyst.
His push for the interior post could also be a calculated move to strengthen its negotiating position. If Bhumjaithai wants to retain the interior portfolio, it may have to compromise on other issues, such as giving up some Senate seats or sharing control over appointments in key independent agencies, said Mr Olarn.
Even so, Bhumjaithai is not out of moves, he noted.
The Department of Special Investigation (DSI) appears to be worried about complaints accusing the agency of overstepping its power and interfering in the Election Commission's (EC) work. It could face a probe for allegedly violating Section 157 of the Criminal Code.
Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong has been suspended by the Constitutional Court from overseeing the DSI, and there are signs the agency is stepping back and letting the EC handle the probe alone.
According to Mr Olarn, any delay in the EC probe will work in Bhumjaithai's favour because once the senators complete a year in office in July, they cannot be removed.
Meanwhile, Thaksin seems increasingly confident that he is beyond reach, particularly regarding the controversy surrounding his extended stay at the Police General Hospital (PGH), said the analyst.
The Medical Council of Thailand (MCT) examined whether Thaksin had suffered from any serious medical conditions while staying in the premium ward on the 14th floor of the PGH and concluded there was no evidence to support such claims. It recommended disciplinary action against three of the four doctors involved in his treatment.
However, Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin, honorary president of the MCT, vetoed the MCT's ruling to discipline the three doctors, two of whom were temporarily suspended and the third given a warning.
Citing sources within medical circles, Mr Olarn said that deans of medical faculties, who hold seats on the MCT, are being called to attend a general assembly on Thursday, the same day the MCT is scheduled to vote on the resolution following Mr Somsak's veto.
It remains to be seen if they will skip the MCT meeting and instead attend the deans' general assembly, which focuses on the key performance indicators of medical schools, he said.
"Their absence could affect the outcome of the vote. While the previous meeting saw a near-unanimous decision, the next vote could fall short of the required two-thirds majority," he said.
The MCT must muster the votes of at least 47 of the 70 council members to overturn Mr Somsak's veto and uphold its resolution to discipline the doctors.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions will hold a hearing on the controversial hospital case. The court probe aims to find out if the eight-year jail term it imposed on Thaksin, reduced to one year by a royal pardon, was adequately enforced by the Corrections Department.
Both dates are key events for Thaksin and the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration, and the outcome will set the stage for Thaksin's next political move, sources say.