Politics will intensify this week as three critical high-stakes events, each linked to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, threaten to shake the Pheu Thai-led coalition government.
The showdowns on Thursday, Friday and Saturday include a Medical Council of Thailand (MCT) meeting to decide whether to challenge the ministerial veto on its judgment regarding Thaksin's hospital treatment; a Supreme Court inquiry into his controversial parole; and a joint meeting between Thailand and Cambodia addressing the escalating border dispute.
At the centre of all three is Thaksin himself. The outcomes are expected to test the stability of the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration, along with the independence and resilience of Thailand's key institutions.
The first political flashpoint is set to unfold on June 12, when the MCT convenes to consider reaffirming its disciplinary ruling against three doctors accused of abusing their medical authority to shield Thaksin.
The physicians were judged to have facilitated Thaksin's hospitalisation on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital (PGH), allowing him to avoid spending a single day in prison despite the eight-year sentence (later commuted to one year) he received upon his return from self-exile abroad.
The council issued a warning to one doctor and suspended the medical licences of the other two for providing misleading medical reports.
Yet this professional reprimand faces a political override after Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin, in his role as special president of the Medical Council, vetoed the resolution.
Citing incomplete legal consideration, particularly by the Department of Corrections, he deployed Section 25 of the Medical Profession Act to quash the decision. His move was widely interpreted as politically motivated and favourable to Thaksin.
The MCT requires at least 47 of its 70 members to reaffirm its original ruling in the upcoming vote. While the Pheu Thai Party is lobbying intensively, particularly targeting members affiliated with state hospitals, the broader medical community has rallied to defend its professional autonomy and resist political interference.
If the MCT affirms its earlier decision, it would mark a bold declaration of institutional independence and a symbolic blow to Thaksin's network, as it would show that professional bodies will fight to remain immune from political pressure.
Conversely, a failure to do so would risk eroding public trust and internal morale within the medical profession, reinforcing the perception that politics can override ethics and potentially pave the way for Thaksin to escape further legal scrutiny, including his court appearance the next day.
Prison privilege on trial
On June 13, the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Persons Holding Political Positions will begin its first hearing into the Department of Corrections' decision to allow Thaksin to serve his sentence in the PGH instead of prison.
The inquiry focuses on whether key state agencies, including Bangkok Remand Prison, the Department of Corrections and the PGH, acted unlawfully or extended undue privilege to Thaksin.
The court's line of questioning goes to the heart of growing concerns over double standards in the justice system and public doubt that Thaksin was genuinely too ill to be held in prison. It will also ask who authorised his prolonged stay in hospital, and whether any officials exceeded their authority or deliberately bypassed regulations.
However, it is unclear whether Thaksin will turn up in court as he has not been summoned.
Whether he appears in person or sends legal representation will likely shape public perception of his accountability.
If the court finds the testimony or documents are incomplete, it may call for additional evidence or extend the investigation to other agencies, such as the Justice Ministry or officials who authorised steps in the process.
Persistent rumours that Thaksin may leave the country, even if unlikely, reflect rising tensions over the issue.
JBC and border tensions
Rounding out this trifecta of pressure is the June 14 meeting of the Thai–Cambodian Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) in Phnom Penh.
The talks come just weeks after a deadly skirmish on May 28 at the Chong Bok border pass in Ubon Ratchathani, where a Cambodian soldier was killed. The meeting is expected to be tense, marked by rising nationalist sentiment and diplomatic friction.
Thai military leaders, including army commander Gen Pana Klaewplodthuk, have accused Cambodian forces of repeated incursions as they established military posts within Thai territory and escalating the situation using heavy artillery from fortified encampments.
In response, the Thai military began phased border closures on Saturday and is preparing countermeasures under tightened security mandates.
The civilian response, led by the Pheu Thai-led government and Ms Paetongtarn, has been widely criticised for lacking resolve.
Accusations of political softness, allegedly stemming from longstanding ties between Thaksin and Cambodian former prime minister Hun Sen, have fuelled public discontent and suggestions of appeasement.
Although the government has recently adopted a firmer stance, with Ms Paetongtarn authorising full military discretion, suspicions remain.
Cambodia's refusal to discuss four disputed zones at the JBC meetings, including the politically sensitive sites of Chong Bok, Ta Muen Thom Temple, Ta Muen Toch Temple and Ta Kwai Temple, adds to the complexity.
Phnom Penh is pushing to take the case before the International Court of Justice while Thailand rejects the ICJ's jurisdiction, tightening the geopolitical deadlock.
Should the JBC fail to yield substantive results, the pressure on Pheu Thai to act decisively will intensify.
The border dispute, layered with nationalistic undercurrents and historical grievances, risks spiralling into a prolonged stand-off that could weaken the government's domestic legitimacy and foreign policy leverage.
