The escalation of border tensions with Cambodia has brought into focus Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's perceived lack of leadership, while the government's muted response to the border situation may put Thailand at a disadvantage, analysts say.
Following the May 28 clash in the Chong Bok area, the 2nd Army Region notified the government about Cambodian troops trespassing into Thailand and requested permission to temporarily close the border in response.
The government rejected the proposal, a move widely seen as a failure to demonstrate strength in the face of a national security situation.
And rather than exercising leadership and addressing the public directly, Ms Paetongtarn left the task to Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai who urged the military to exercise "restraint" in response to what was described as a border trespass.
The government's handling of the flare-up has drawn criticism from the public and within the governing coalition.
Critics not only question the prime minister's leadership during a national security crisis but also raise concerns over a possible conflict of interest, with some suggesting the "restrain and compromise" approach may be due to close ties between the Shinawatra family and Cambodia's former prime minister Hun Sen.
Cambodia's calculations
Assoc Prof Dulyapak Preecharush, deputy director of Asian Studies, Faculty of Liberal Arts, Thammasat University, said the escalation of the border dispute is likely to be a calculated move by Cambodia to advance its territorial claims and arouse nationalist sentiment to strengthen the ruling Cambodian People's Party.
"[Cambodia] is using the dispute to bolster domestic political support while aiming [for territorial gains] too. They use various tools and they move when the Thai government's unity and leadership are being doubted. In terms of international politics, they've chosen the right time to act," he said.
He said personal ties between the Shinawatra family and Hun Sen are a double-edged sword.
While the relations can be exploited to mitigate or resolve certain disputes, they may prompt Cambodia to believe the Thai government would not respond forcefully to territorial claims, according to Assoc Prof Dulyapak.
The situation echoes the Preah Vihear dispute which occurred under the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, when Cambodia pressed for territorial claims, he said.
He criticised the government's slow response, which contrasted with Cambodia raising the issue in parliament and taking the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.
"Cambodia has apparently skipped the common conflict management process. So, its intention is to claim more territory, and the government's muted response is an opportunity for them to move quickly," he said.
Assoc Prof Dulyapak urged the government to counter Cambodia's territorial claims by leveraging bilateral mechanisms like the Joint Border Commission, the Thai-Cambodian General Border Committee and the Regional Border Committee and challenge Cambodia's claims over the Emerald Triangle region, which also includes Laos.
"If we wait, we will be at a serious disadvantage. Thailand must also make its position clear to the international community that we seek peace and that we do not want the conflict to escalate unless absolutely necessary," he said.
Dulyapak: Beware of Hun Sen ties
Leadership issue
Pichai Rattanadilok Na Phuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration, echoed Assoc Prof Dulyapak's views, saying Cambodia has bypassed the common negotiation process by going to the ICJ.
Normally when a border dispute arises, both sides negotiate and often turn to joint development as a solution to avoid leaving the disputed area as "no man's land" which could lead to trespassing, violence, or be used for political gains by any country, he said.
"And I'm not talking about a casino-entertainment complex. I mean joint development with community participation, such as cultural tourism centres or OTOP markets that benefit people on both sides," he said.
He said Cambodia is escalating tensions to stir nationalist sentiment ahead of its elections. This tactic has been used before to boost domestic support, and it shows a contrast between Cambodian and Thai leadership, he said.
The prime minister's muted response has strengthened public perceptions of weak leadership and it should remind the public to carefully choose a leader with the vision and ability to steer through more complex global challenges.
"It feels like Thailand has no leader in a time of crisis. It is unfortunate for the country," he said.
Pichai: Development over division
Divided public
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's faculty of political science and law, said the prime minister has not done enough in terms of communicating Thailand's position on the dispute internationally or maintaining public confidence at home.
Internationally, Cambodia has seized the spotlight while domestically, the people are divided, he said. One side fears the situation could escalate into war while the other demands stronger action to show resolve and give confidence to the people and the military, he said.
The military should not be left in a situation where its action plans may not align with the government's direction. This could stir tensions and even spark coup rumours, given that both the prime minister and defence minister have failed to show clear leadership, he said.
"Despite the Shinawatra family's close relationships with Hun Sen, these personal connections have yielded no diplomatic gains, and some people feel those ties are being used for personal benefit, not national interest," he said.
The analyst urged Ms Paetongtarn, Mr Phumtham and Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa to adopt a firm, unified stance without calling for war unless completely unavoidable.
"The government must clarify what the dispute is about. It must stand firm in opposing Cambodia's move to take the matter to the ICJ.
"And domestically the government and the military must be unified otherwise we will continue to see division," he said.
Olarn: Action plans must align
Communication gaps
Virot Ali, an international relations lecturer at Thammasat University, said the government's flaw in the border dispute lies in communication.
He said the prime minister should have personally addressed the public, adding it has been more than a week and the nation has yet to hear any substantial remarks from the premier.
Government communication has been mostly through media interviews and appeared to downplay the border tensions, he said. It seems to avoid stoking nationalist sentiment, which is understandable, he said.
"The government may want to use mechanisms such as joint committees to resolve the dispute first, so it appears to be cautious and soft. The communication has been too soft but I don't think the government is yielding to Cambodia," he said.
On speculation about the Shinawatra family's close ties with Hun Sen influencing the government's stance, Mr Virot said Cambodia's internal political pressures could have prompted Hun Sen to act strongly.
He said he sees no links nor evidence to support claims that shared interests between the Shinawatra family and Hun Sen are affecting the government's response.
Mr Virot said the disputed area remains undefined, and bilateral talks are necessary to resolve it to avoid risks to security and border trade as people on both sides depend on each other.
Virot: Public needs answers